- While the short-term impact from COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 has been significant, the long-term impact on growth trends is more muted.
- Including estimates of higher spending growth from COVID-19 vaccines and lower spending from existing treatments due to disruptions from the pandemic, the five-year CAGR to 2025 is expected to be 4.6%, compared to 4.5% if the pandemic had not taken place.
- Perhaps the largest uncertainty in the next five years will be the potential impact of economic factors on countries’ budgeting and whether there will be shifts in policies regarding healthcare and medicine spending.
- It is expected that the pricing and value of medicines will be under increased scrutiny during this period, but this was an event that was already underway in most developed markets and an increasingly key issue in the U.S. market.
- While the pandemic has dominated much of the past year, the wider trends on the use of medicines continue to evolve relatively unchanged, which offers some hope to the millions living in lower income markets, with their improved health situation largely a result of increased access to medicines.
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