Euromonitor International Analytics offers precise answers to vital business questions in an increasingly fast-paced and uncertain world. Our Macro Model provides regularly updated forecasts and “what-if” scenarios for core macroeconomic variables, including real gdp growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rate. Its global scope ensures our macro forecasts and scenarios reflect the economically inter-connected world in
which we live.
The Global Economic Forecasts report explains the quarterly updates of the Macro Model, with analysis focused on quarterly macro changes for the world’s key economies and what these mean to our view of the likely, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the global economy. Ultimately, we help businesses stay ahead of risks and opportunities as they emerge on a macroeconomic basis.
The global economy started 2017 strong with real gdp growth gaining momentum and rising to 3.6% in q1 2017. We have maintained our global real gdp growth forecast at 3.5% for 2017-2018. Despite standing above the annual 3.2% growth in 2016, the forecast is still considerably below the pre-crisis growth levels.
For advanced and emerging economies, economic activity is forecast to accelerate, reaching 2.0% and 4.7% growth, respectively, in 2017. Emerging markets,
however, will remain a principal driver of the global economic growth, accounting for as much as 74% of the world’s real gdp expansion, and this share is predicted to surge further up to 79% by 2020.
Our latest macroeconomic outlook shows the previous uncertainty surrounding the global growth forecast receding since May 2017. The political risks have diminished in Europe, with the region rebounding more strongly than expected and populist
parties performing worse than expected in a number of Eurozone elections, which suggests that the populist surge might be beginning to fade.
However, some of the most urgent global risks presently are stemming from the unexpected us policies, rising geopolitical tensions, uncertain outcome of Brexit negotiations, or the possibility ….
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